Afogados vs Facilnet

Afogados20%
Draw28%
Facilnet52%

1.11 expected goals for Afogados

1.67 expected goals for Facilnet

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Facilnet has the edge (52%), but not by much: a draw is at 28% and a Afogados win at 20%. It expects 2.8 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 48% chance, and both teams scoring, 52%.

Goals

Over 0.5 goals93%It happened
Over 1.5 goals77%It happened
Over 2.5 goals48%It happened
Over 3.5 goals30%It did not happen
Over 4.5 goals15%It did not happen

Both teams score52%
Afogados or draw47%
Draw or Facilnet80%
No draw72%

Saved before kickoff, on 27 October at 06:57 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.