Probably Football

Matches

Copa Chile (Chile)

Universidad de Chile vs Antofagasta

  1. Universidad de Chile46%
  2. Draw26%
  3. Antofagasta28%

1.64 expected goals for Universidad de Chile

1.10 expected goals for Antofagasta

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Universidad de Chile has the edge (46%), but not by much: a draw is at 26% and a Antofagasta win at 28%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Universidad de Chile defence, which lets in 44% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Universidad de Chile attack, which scores 73% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.7 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 53% chance, and both teams scoring, 52%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Universidad de Chile

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Universidad de Chile attack+73%
  3. Antofagasta defence−37%

Expected goals1.64

Antofagasta

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Antofagasta attack+44%
  2. Universidad de Chile defence−44%

Expected goals1.10

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals93%
  2. Over 1.5 goals76%
  3. Over 2.5 goals53%
  4. Over 3.5 goals29%
  5. Over 4.5 goals14%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.