Probably Football

Matches

Pro League (United Arab Emirates)

Sharjah FC vs Al Nasr

  1. Sharjah FC28%
  2. Draw26%
  3. Al Nasr46%

1.37 expected goals for Sharjah FC

1.62 expected goals for Al Nasr

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Al Nasr has the edge (46%), but not by much: a draw is at 26% and a Sharjah FC win at 28%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Al Nasr defence, which lets in 19% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Al Nasr attack, which scores 16% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.0 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 59% chance, and both teams scoring, 58%. And about 9.5 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Sharjah FC

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Sharjah FC attack+11%
  3. Al Nasr defence−19%

Expected goals1.37

Al Nasr

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Al Nasr attack+16%
  2. Sharjah FC defence+3%

Expected goals1.62

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals94%
  2. Over 1.5 goals80%
  3. Over 2.5 goals59%
  4. Over 3.5 goals35%
  5. Over 4.5 goals18%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.5 expected

5.2 for Sharjah FC and 4.3 for Al Nasr

  1. Over 8.5 corners57%
  2. Over 9.5 corners46%
  3. Over 10.5 corners36%

Cards

4.7 expected

2.0 for Sharjah FC and 2.7 for Al Nasr

  1. Over 3.5 cards70%
  2. Over 4.5 cards51%
  3. Over 5.5 cards34%

Shots

25.9 expected

16.5 for Sharjah FC and 9.4 for Al Nasr

  1. Over 20.5 shots77%
  2. Over 22.5 shots66%
  3. Over 24.5 shots55%

Fouls

25.0 expected

11.8 for Sharjah FC and 13.2 for Al Nasr

  1. Over 20.5 fouls79%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls67%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls52%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.