Probably Football

Matches

Pro League (United Arab Emirates)

Friday 30 October, 10:35

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Ittihad Kalba

  1. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai76%
  2. Draw16%
  3. Al-Ittihad Kalba8%

2.62 expected goals for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

0.80 expected goals for Al-Ittihad Kalba

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack+49%
  3. Al-Ittihad Kalba defence+16%

Expected goals2.62

Al-Ittihad Kalba

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Al-Ittihad Kalba attack−3%
  2. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai defence−39%

Expected goals0.80

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals96%
  2. Over 1.5 goals86%
  3. Over 2.5 goals61%
  4. Over 3.5 goals45%
  5. Over 4.5 goals26%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

8.6 expected

4.4 for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and 4.3 for Al-Ittihad Kalba

  1. Over 8.5 corners48%
  2. Over 9.5 corners37%
  3. Over 10.5 corners28%

Cards

3.5 expected

1.3 for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and 2.2 for Al-Ittihad Kalba

  1. Over 3.5 cards46%
  2. Over 4.5 cards27%
  3. Over 5.5 cards14%

Shots

29.2 expected

14.0 for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and 15.2 for Al-Ittihad Kalba

  1. Over 20.5 shots88%
  2. Over 22.5 shots81%
  3. Over 24.5 shots72%

Fouls

21.7 expected

9.8 for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and 11.9 for Al-Ittihad Kalba

  1. Over 20.5 fouls58%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls42%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls28%

Saved before kickoff, on 28 October at 22:42 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.