Wednesday 28 October, 14:00
Final score
PEC Zwolle1-2FC OSS
The model gave this result 29%. Its most likely result was a PEC Zwolle win (59%).
PEC Zwolle vs FC OSS
- PEC Zwolle59%
- Draw12%
- FC OSS29%
2.25 expected goals for PEC Zwolle
1.16 expected goals for FC OSS
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
What the model said before kickoff
The model makes PEC Zwolle the clear favourite: 59% to win. It expects 3.4 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 67% chance, and both teams scoring, 57%. And about 10.7 corners.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals96%It happened
- Over 1.5 goals86%It happened
- Over 2.5 goals67%It happened
- Over 3.5 goals44%It did not happen
- Over 4.5 goals26%It did not happen
- Both teams score57%
- PEC Zwolle or draw71%
- Draw or FC OSS41%
- No draw88%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
10.7 expected
5.8 for PEC Zwolle and 4.9 for FC OSS
- Over 8.5 corners68%
- Over 9.5 corners58%
- Over 10.5 corners48%
Cards
3.4 expected
1.4 for PEC Zwolle and 2.0 for FC OSS
- Over 3.5 cards45%
- Over 4.5 cards26%
- Over 5.5 cards13%
Shots
28.8 expected
15.0 for PEC Zwolle and 13.7 for FC OSS
- Over 20.5 shots87%
- Over 22.5 shots79%
- Over 24.5 shots70%
Fouls
24.5 expected
12.1 for PEC Zwolle and 12.4 for FC OSS
- Over 20.5 fouls77%
- Over 22.5 fouls63%
- Over 24.5 fouls49%
Saved before kickoff, on 27 October at 06:57 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.