Probably Football

Matches

KNVB Beker (Netherlands)

Wednesday 28 October, 14:00

Final score

VVV Venlo0-2Vitesse

The model gave this result 39%. Its most likely result was a VVV Venlo win (46%).

VVV Venlo vs Vitesse

  1. VVV Venlo46%
  2. Draw15%
  3. Vitesse39%

1.88 expected goals for VVV Venlo

1.48 expected goals for Vitesse

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

A very open match: no result goes above 46%. It expects 3.4 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 67% chance, and both teams scoring, 58%. And about 10.1 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals96%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals85%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals67%It did not happen
  4. Over 3.5 goals43%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals25%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.1 expected

5.5 for VVV Venlo and 4.5 for Vitesse

  1. Over 8.5 corners62%
  2. Over 9.5 corners52%
  3. Over 10.5 corners42%

Cards

4.2 expected

1.6 for VVV Venlo and 2.5 for Vitesse

  1. Over 3.5 cards60%
  2. Over 4.5 cards41%
  3. Over 5.5 cards24%

Shots

28.8 expected

17.5 for VVV Venlo and 11.4 for Vitesse

  1. Over 20.5 shots87%
  2. Over 22.5 shots79%
  3. Over 24.5 shots70%

Fouls

27.7 expected

13.3 for VVV Venlo and 14.4 for Vitesse

  1. Over 20.5 fouls90%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls81%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls70%

Saved before kickoff, on 27 October at 06:57 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.