Wednesday 28 October, 12:45
Final score (on penalties)
Sparta Rotterdam2-2Fortuna Sittard
The model gave this result 15%. Its most likely result was a Fortuna Sittard win (47%).
Sparta Rotterdam vs Fortuna Sittard
- Sparta Rotterdam38%
- Draw15%
- Fortuna Sittard47%
1.62 expected goals for Sparta Rotterdam
1.75 expected goals for Fortuna Sittard
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
What the model said before kickoff
Fortuna Sittard has the edge (47%), but not by much: a draw is at 15% and a Sparta Rotterdam win at 38%. It expects 3.4 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 67% chance, and both teams scoring, 59%. And about 10.6 corners.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals96%
- Over 1.5 goals85%
- Over 2.5 goals67%
- Over 3.5 goals43%
- Over 4.5 goals25%
- Both teams score59%
- Sparta Rotterdam or draw52%
- Draw or Fortuna Sittard62%
- No draw85%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
10.6 expected
6.4 for Sparta Rotterdam and 4.2 for Fortuna Sittard
- Over 8.5 corners67%
- Over 9.5 corners57%
- Over 10.5 corners48%
Cards
3.9 expected
1.7 for Sparta Rotterdam and 2.2 for Fortuna Sittard
- Over 3.5 cards55%
- Over 4.5 cards35%
- Over 5.5 cards20%
Shots
30.7 expected
16.9 for Sparta Rotterdam and 13.8 for Fortuna Sittard
- Over 20.5 shots91%
- Over 22.5 shots85%
- Over 24.5 shots77%
Fouls
22.0 expected
11.8 for Sparta Rotterdam and 10.1 for Fortuna Sittard
- Over 20.5 fouls60%
- Over 22.5 fouls44%
- Over 24.5 fouls30%
Saved before kickoff, on 27 October at 06:57 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.