Probably Football

Matches

KNVB Beker (Netherlands)

Thursday 29 October, 14:00

RKAV Volendam vs ROHDA Raalte

  1. RKAV Volendam64%
  2. Draw8%
  3. ROHDA Raalte28%

2.69 expected goals for RKAV Volendam

1.30 expected goals for ROHDA Raalte

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

RKAV Volendam

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. RKAV Volendam attack+26%
  3. ROHDA Raalte defence+42%

Expected goals2.69

ROHDA Raalte

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. ROHDA Raalte attack−5%
  2. RKAV Volendam defence0%

Expected goals1.30

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals98%
  2. Over 1.5 goals91%
  3. Over 2.5 goals73%
  4. Over 3.5 goals56%
  5. Over 4.5 goals37%

Saved before kickoff, on 28 October at 21:43 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.