Probably Football

Matches

KNVB Beker (Netherlands)

Tuesday 27 October, 14:00

Final score

FC Eindhoven5-3FC Volendam

The model gave this result 19%. Its most likely result was a FC Volendam win (73%).

FC Eindhoven vs FC Volendam

  1. FC Eindhoven19%
  2. Draw8%
  3. FC Volendam73%

1.01 expected goals for FC Eindhoven

2.50 expected goals for FC Volendam

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

The model makes FC Volendam the clear favourite: 73% to win. It expects 3.5 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 68% chance, and both teams scoring, 56%. And about 10.3 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals97%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals87%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals68%It happened
  4. Over 3.5 goals47%It happened
  5. Over 4.5 goals28%It happened

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.3 expected

5.8 for FC Eindhoven and 4.6 for FC Volendam

  1. Over 8.5 corners65%
  2. Over 9.5 corners54%
  3. Over 10.5 corners45%

Cards

3.8 expected

1.5 for FC Eindhoven and 2.3 for FC Volendam

  1. Over 3.5 cards53%
  2. Over 4.5 cards34%
  3. Over 5.5 cards19%

Shots

28.3 expected

16.5 for FC Eindhoven and 11.8 for FC Volendam

  1. Over 20.5 shots86%
  2. Over 22.5 shots77%
  3. Over 24.5 shots67%

Fouls

24.4 expected

11.9 for FC Eindhoven and 12.4 for FC Volendam

  1. Over 20.5 fouls76%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls62%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls47%

Saved before kickoff, on 27 October at 06:57 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.