Probably Football

Matches

KNVB Beker (Netherlands)

Thursday 29 October, 14:00

ACV vs AFC Amsterdam

  1. ACV42%
  2. Draw15%
  3. AFC Amsterdam43%

1.84 expected goals for ACV

1.68 expected goals for AFC Amsterdam

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

ACV

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. ACV attack+36%
  3. AFC Amsterdam defence−10%

Expected goals1.84

AFC Amsterdam

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. AFC Amsterdam attack+16%
  2. ACV defence+6%

Expected goals1.68

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals97%
  2. Over 1.5 goals87%
  3. Over 2.5 goals68%
  4. Over 3.5 goals47%
  5. Over 4.5 goals28%

Saved before kickoff, on 28 October at 21:43 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.