Wednesday 28 October, 14:45
Final score (on penalties)
Manchester City2-2Brighton
The model gave this result 23%. Its most likely result was a Manchester City win (46%).
Manchester City vs Brighton
- Manchester City46%
- Draw23%
- Brighton31%
1.82 expected goals for Manchester City
1.32 expected goals for Brighton
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
What the model said before kickoff
Manchester City has the edge (46%), but not by much: a draw is at 23% and a Brighton win at 31%. It expects 3.1 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 55% chance, and both teams scoring, 51%. And about 10.2 corners.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals95%
- Over 1.5 goals83%
- Over 2.5 goals55%
- Over 3.5 goals38%
- Over 4.5 goals21%
- Both teams score51%
- Manchester City or draw69%
- Draw or Brighton54%
- No draw77%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
10.2 expected
5.6 for Manchester City and 4.7 for Brighton
- Over 8.5 corners64%
- Over 9.5 corners54%
- Over 10.5 corners44%
Cards
3.6 expected
1.4 for Manchester City and 2.2 for Brighton
- Over 3.5 cards47%
- Over 4.5 cards28%
- Over 5.5 cards15%
Shots
28.9 expected
14.8 for Manchester City and 14.1 for Brighton
- Over 20.5 shots87%
- Over 22.5 shots80%
- Over 24.5 shots70%
Fouls
22.8 expected
10.0 for Manchester City and 12.7 for Brighton
- Over 20.5 fouls65%
- Over 22.5 fouls50%
- Over 24.5 fouls35%
Saved before kickoff, on 27 October at 06:57 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.