Lyngby vs Randers FC
- Lyngby33%
- Draw14%
- Randers FC53%
1.71 expected goals for Lyngby
1.33 expected goals for Randers FC
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
Randers FC has the edge (53%), but not by much: a draw is at 14% and a Lyngby win at 33%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Lyngby attack, which scores 94% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Randers FC defence, which lets in 42% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 3.0 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 67% chance, and both teams scoring, 51%. And about 9.8 corners.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Lyngby
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Lyngby attack+94%
- Randers FC defence−42%
Expected goals1.71
Randers FC
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Randers FC attack+40%
- Lyngby defence−30%
Expected goals1.33
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals95%
- Over 1.5 goals81%
- Over 2.5 goals67%
- Over 3.5 goals36%
- Over 4.5 goals19%
- Both teams score51%
- Lyngby or draw47%
- Draw or Randers FC67%
- No draw86%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
9.8 expected
5.2 for Lyngby and 4.6 for Randers FC
- Over 8.5 corners60%
- Over 9.5 corners50%
- Over 10.5 corners40%
Cards
3.8 expected
1.6 for Lyngby and 2.2 for Randers FC
- Over 3.5 cards53%
- Over 4.5 cards34%
- Over 5.5 cards19%
Shots
27.3 expected
14.7 for Lyngby and 12.6 for Randers FC
- Over 20.5 shots83%
- Over 22.5 shots73%
- Over 24.5 shots63%
Fouls
25.2 expected
14.3 for Lyngby and 10.9 for Randers FC
- Over 20.5 fouls80%
- Over 22.5 fouls68%
- Over 24.5 fouls53%
Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.