Probably Football

Matches

League Cup (England)

Wednesday 28 October, 14:45

Final score

Sunderland3-2Brentford

The model gave this result 22%. Its most likely result was a Brentford win (53%).

Sunderland vs Brentford

  1. Sunderland22%
  2. Draw25%
  3. Brentford53%

0.87 expected goals for Sunderland

1.47 expected goals for Brentford

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Brentford has the edge (53%), but not by much: a draw is at 25% and a Sunderland win at 22%. It expects 2.3 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 48% chance, and both teams scoring, 50%. And about 9.8 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals90%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals68%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals48%It happened
  4. Over 3.5 goals21%It happened
  5. Over 4.5 goals9%It happened

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.8 expected

5.9 for Sunderland and 3.9 for Brentford

  1. Over 8.5 corners60%
  2. Over 9.5 corners50%
  3. Over 10.5 corners40%

Cards

3.9 expected

1.6 for Sunderland and 2.3 for Brentford

  1. Over 3.5 cards55%
  2. Over 4.5 cards35%
  3. Over 5.5 cards20%

Shots

30.2 expected

17.2 for Sunderland and 13.0 for Brentford

  1. Over 20.5 shots90%
  2. Over 22.5 shots84%
  3. Over 24.5 shots76%

Fouls

23.5 expected

11.0 for Sunderland and 12.5 for Brentford

  1. Over 20.5 fouls70%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls56%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls41%

Saved before kickoff, on 27 October at 06:57 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.