Wednesday 28 October, 14:45
Final score (on penalties)
Liverpool1-1Chelsea
The model gave this result 21%. Its most likely result was a Liverpool win (49%).
Liverpool vs Chelsea
- Liverpool49%
- Draw21%
- Chelsea30%
2.45 expected goals for Liverpool
1.74 expected goals for Chelsea
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
What the model said before kickoff
Liverpool has the edge (49%), but not by much: a draw is at 21% and a Chelsea win at 30%. It expects 4.2 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 65% chance, and both teams scoring, 53%. And about 10.4 corners.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals98%
- Over 1.5 goals92%
- Over 2.5 goals65%
- Over 3.5 goals60%
- Over 4.5 goals41%
- Both teams score53%
- Liverpool or draw70%
- Draw or Chelsea51%
- No draw80%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
10.4 expected
5.9 for Liverpool and 4.4 for Chelsea
- Over 8.5 corners65%
- Over 9.5 corners55%
- Over 10.5 corners45%
Cards
4.1 expected
1.9 for Liverpool and 2.1 for Chelsea
- Over 3.5 cards58%
- Over 4.5 cards39%
- Over 5.5 cards23%
Shots
27.6 expected
16.7 for Liverpool and 10.9 for Chelsea
- Over 20.5 shots84%
- Over 22.5 shots75%
- Over 24.5 shots64%
Fouls
21.3 expected
11.4 for Liverpool and 10.0 for Chelsea
- Over 20.5 fouls55%
- Over 22.5 fouls39%
- Over 24.5 fouls25%
Saved before kickoff, on 27 October at 06:57 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.