Probably Football

Matches

League Cup (England)

Wednesday 28 October, 14:45

Final score

Bradford2-0Peterborough

The model's most likely result happened: a Bradford win (50%).

Bradford vs Peterborough

  1. Bradford50%
  2. Draw26%
  3. Peterborough24%

1.43 expected goals for Bradford

0.76 expected goals for Peterborough

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Bradford has the edge (50%), but not by much: a draw is at 26% and a Peterborough win at 24%. It expects 2.2 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 47% chance, and both teams scoring, 49%. And about 11.2 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals88%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals65%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals47%It did not happen
  4. Over 3.5 goals18%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals7%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

11.2 expected

6.2 for Bradford and 5.0 for Peterborough

  1. Over 8.5 corners72%
  2. Over 9.5 corners62%
  3. Over 10.5 corners53%

Cards

3.9 expected

1.6 for Bradford and 2.3 for Peterborough

  1. Over 3.5 cards55%
  2. Over 4.5 cards36%
  3. Over 5.5 cards20%

Shots

26.2 expected

15.3 for Bradford and 10.9 for Peterborough

  1. Over 20.5 shots79%
  2. Over 22.5 shots68%
  3. Over 24.5 shots57%

Fouls

25.5 expected

13.2 for Bradford and 12.3 for Peterborough

  1. Over 20.5 fouls82%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls70%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls56%

Saved before kickoff, on 27 October at 06:57 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.