Probably Football

Matches

League Cup (England)

Wednesday 28 October, 14:45

Final score

Bournemouth3-0Aston Villa

The model gave this result 35%. Its most likely result was a Aston Villa win (42%).

Bournemouth vs Aston Villa

  1. Bournemouth35%
  2. Draw23%
  3. Aston Villa42%

1.59 expected goals for Bournemouth

1.62 expected goals for Aston Villa

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

A very open match: no result goes above 42%. It expects 3.2 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 55% chance, and both teams scoring, 51%. And about 9.7 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals95%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals83%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals55%It happened
  4. Over 3.5 goals40%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals22%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.7 expected

5.8 for Bournemouth and 4.0 for Aston Villa

  1. Over 8.5 corners59%
  2. Over 9.5 corners49%
  3. Over 10.5 corners39%

Cards

4.4 expected

2.2 for Bournemouth and 2.1 for Aston Villa

  1. Over 3.5 cards64%
  2. Over 4.5 cards45%
  3. Over 5.5 cards28%

Shots

28.2 expected

17.4 for Bournemouth and 10.8 for Aston Villa

  1. Over 20.5 shots85%
  2. Over 22.5 shots77%
  3. Over 24.5 shots67%

Fouls

24.5 expected

13.2 for Bournemouth and 11.2 for Aston Villa

  1. Over 20.5 fouls76%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls63%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls48%

Saved before kickoff, on 27 October at 06:57 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.