Probably Football

Matches

CONMEBOL Sudamericana (International)

Wednesday 21 October, 15:00

Final score

Vasco DA Gama1-3Boca Juniors

The model gave this result 33%. Its most likely result was a Vasco DA Gama win (38%).

Vasco DA Gama vs Boca Juniors

  1. Vasco DA Gama38%
  2. Draw29%
  3. Boca Juniors33%

1.18 expected goals for Vasco DA Gama

1.08 expected goals for Boca Juniors

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

A very open match: no result goes above 38%. It expects 2.3 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 42% chance, and both teams scoring, 46%. And about 9.9 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals89%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals67%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals42%It happened
  4. Over 3.5 goals19%It happened
  5. Over 4.5 goals8%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.9 expected

5.2 for Vasco DA Gama and 4.6 for Boca Juniors

  1. Over 8.5 corners61%
  2. Over 9.5 corners50%
  3. Over 10.5 corners40%

Cards

3.9 expected

1.9 for Vasco DA Gama and 2.0 for Boca Juniors

  1. Over 3.5 cards55%
  2. Over 4.5 cards36%
  3. Over 5.5 cards20%

Shots

25.2 expected

13.2 for Vasco DA Gama and 11.9 for Boca Juniors

  1. Over 20.5 shots74%
  2. Over 22.5 shots63%
  3. Over 24.5 shots51%

Fouls

22.2 expected

12.1 for Vasco DA Gama and 10.1 for Boca Juniors

  1. Over 20.5 fouls62%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls46%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls32%

Saved before kickoff, on 21 October at 07:01 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.