Probably Football

Matches

Liga Pro (Ecuador)

Sunday 25 October, 16:00

Final score

Orense SC4-0Delfin SC

The model's most likely result happened: a Orense SC win (43%).

Orense SC vs Delfin SC

  1. Orense SC43%
  2. Draw29%
  3. Delfin SC28%

1.20 expected goals for Orense SC

1.08 expected goals for Delfin SC

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Orense SC has the edge (43%), but not by much: a draw is at 29% and a Delfin SC win at 28%. It expects 2.3 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 43% chance, and both teams scoring, 47%. And about 9.8 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals89%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals67%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals43%It happened
  4. Over 3.5 goals20%It happened
  5. Over 4.5 goals8%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.8 expected

5.6 for Orense SC and 4.2 for Delfin SC

  1. Over 8.5 corners60%
  2. Over 9.5 corners50%
  3. Over 10.5 corners40%

Cards

3.7 expected

1.6 for Orense SC and 2.1 for Delfin SC

  1. Over 3.5 cards51%
  2. Over 4.5 cards32%
  3. Over 5.5 cards17%

Shots

24.9 expected

13.7 for Orense SC and 11.2 for Delfin SC

  1. Over 20.5 shots73%
  2. Over 22.5 shots62%
  3. Over 24.5 shots50%

Fouls

23.5 expected

11.8 for Orense SC and 11.7 for Delfin SC

  1. Over 20.5 fouls71%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls56%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls41%

Saved before kickoff, on 25 October at 07:17 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.