Aucas vs Barcelona SC

Aucas44%
Draw30%
Barcelona SC26%

1.08 expected goals for Aucas

0.90 expected goals for Barcelona SC

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Aucas has the edge (44%), but not by much: a draw is at 30% and a Barcelona SC win at 26%. It expects 2.0 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 40% chance, and both teams scoring, 47%. And about 9.5 corners.

Goals

Over 0.5 goals86%It happened
Over 1.5 goals60%It happened
Over 2.5 goals40%It happened
Over 3.5 goals14%It happened
Over 4.5 goals5%It did not happen

Both teams score47%
Aucas or draw74%
Draw or Barcelona SC56%
No draw69%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.5 expected

4.7 for Aucas and 4.7 for Barcelona SC

Over 8.5 corners57%
Over 9.5 corners46%
Over 10.5 corners36%

Cards

4.3 expected

1.6 for Aucas and 2.6 for Barcelona SC

Over 3.5 cards62%
Over 4.5 cards43%
Over 5.5 cards26%

Shots

23.0 expected

12.5 for Aucas and 10.5 for Barcelona SC

Over 20.5 shots63%
Over 22.5 shots51%
Over 24.5 shots38%

Fouls

23.3 expected

13.2 for Aucas and 10.1 for Barcelona SC

Over 20.5 fouls69%
Over 22.5 fouls54%
Over 24.5 fouls39%

Saved before kickoff, on 25 October at 07:17 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.