Thursday 29 October, 19:00
Universidad Catolica vs LDU de Quito
- Universidad Catolica35%
- Draw29%
- LDU de Quito36%
1.14 expected goals for Universidad Catolica
1.18 expected goals for LDU de Quito
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Universidad Catolica
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Universidad Catolica attack+49%
- LDU de Quito defence−49%
Expected goals1.14
LDU de Quito
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- LDU de Quito attack+42%
- Universidad Catolica defence−39%
Expected goals1.18
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals90%
- Over 1.5 goals68%
- Over 2.5 goals44%
- Over 3.5 goals20%
- Over 4.5 goals9%
- Both teams score50%
- Universidad Catolica or draw64%
- Draw or LDU de Quito65%
- No draw71%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
9.7 expected
5.0 for Universidad Catolica and 4.7 for LDU de Quito
- Over 8.5 corners59%
- Over 9.5 corners48%
- Over 10.5 corners38%
Cards
4.0 expected
1.7 for Universidad Catolica and 2.2 for LDU de Quito
- Over 3.5 cards56%
- Over 4.5 cards36%
- Over 5.5 cards21%
Shots
22.4 expected
11.9 for Universidad Catolica and 10.5 for LDU de Quito
- Over 20.5 shots60%
- Over 22.5 shots47%
- Over 24.5 shots35%
Fouls
23.2 expected
9.8 for Universidad Catolica and 13.4 for LDU de Quito
- Over 20.5 fouls69%
- Over 22.5 fouls54%
- Over 24.5 fouls39%
Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 08:02 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.