Probably Football

Matches

Cup (Croatia)

Mladost Ždralovi vs NK Slaven Belupo

  1. Mladost Ždralovi42%
  2. Draw22%
  3. NK Slaven Belupo36%

1.82 expected goals for Mladost Ždralovi

1.73 expected goals for NK Slaven Belupo

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 42%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the NK Slaven Belupo attack, which scores 31% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Mladost Ždralovi attack, which scores 28% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.5 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 62% chance, and both teams scoring, 57%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Mladost Ždralovi

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Mladost Ždralovi attack+28%
  3. NK Slaven Belupo defence−6%

Expected goals1.82

NK Slaven Belupo

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. NK Slaven Belupo attack+31%
  2. Mladost Ždralovi defence−3%

Expected goals1.73

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals97%
  2. Over 1.5 goals87%
  3. Over 2.5 goals62%
  4. Over 3.5 goals47%
  5. Over 4.5 goals28%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.