Probably Football

Matches

Cup (Croatia)

Istra 1961 vs Neretva Metković

  1. Istra 196159%
  2. Draw21%
  3. Neretva Metković20%

2.23 expected goals for Istra 1961

1.17 expected goals for Neretva Metković

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Istra 1961 the clear favourite: 59% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Istra 1961 defence, which lets in 31% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Istra 1961 attack, which scores 36% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.4 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 59% chance, and both teams scoring, 55%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Istra 1961

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Istra 1961 attack+36%
  3. Neretva Metković defence+8%

Expected goals2.23

Neretva Metković

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Neretva Metković attack+25%
  2. Istra 1961 defence−31%

Expected goals1.17

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals96%
  2. Over 1.5 goals86%
  3. Over 2.5 goals59%
  4. Over 3.5 goals44%
  5. Over 4.5 goals26%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.