Tuesday 27 October, 14:00
Final score (on penalties)
Holstein Kiel1-11899 Hoffenheim
The model gave this result 16%. Its most likely result was a 1899 Hoffenheim win (67%).
Holstein Kiel vs 1899 Hoffenheim
- Holstein Kiel17%
- Draw16%
- 1899 Hoffenheim67%
1.17 expected goals for Holstein Kiel
2.03 expected goals for 1899 Hoffenheim
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
What the model said before kickoff
The model makes 1899 Hoffenheim the clear favourite: 67% to win. It expects 3.2 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 64% chance, and both teams scoring, 52%. And about 10.2 corners.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals95%
- Over 1.5 goals83%
- Over 2.5 goals64%
- Over 3.5 goals40%
- Over 4.5 goals22%
- Both teams score52%
- Holstein Kiel or draw33%
- Draw or 1899 Hoffenheim83%
- No draw84%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
10.2 expected
5.5 for Holstein Kiel and 4.7 for 1899 Hoffenheim
- Over 8.5 corners64%
- Over 9.5 corners53%
- Over 10.5 corners43%
Cards
4.6 expected
1.9 for Holstein Kiel and 2.7 for 1899 Hoffenheim
- Over 3.5 cards67%
- Over 4.5 cards48%
- Over 5.5 cards31%
Shots
27.0 expected
13.7 for Holstein Kiel and 13.3 for 1899 Hoffenheim
- Over 20.5 shots82%
- Over 22.5 shots72%
- Over 24.5 shots61%
Fouls
26.3 expected
12.3 for Holstein Kiel and 14.0 for 1899 Hoffenheim
- Over 20.5 fouls85%
- Over 22.5 fouls74%
- Over 24.5 fouls61%
Saved before kickoff, on 27 October at 06:57 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.