Gremio vs Atletico-MG
- Gremio31%
- Draw31%
- Atletico-MG38%
1.12 expected goals for Gremio
1.19 expected goals for Atletico-MG
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
A very open match: no result goes above 38%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Atletico-MG defence, which lets in 47% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Gremio defence, which lets in 46% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.3 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 39% chance, and both teams scoring, 42%. And about 11.4 corners.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Gremio
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Gremio attack+39%
- Atletico-MG defence−47%
Expected goals1.12
Atletico-MG
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Atletico-MG attack+61%
- Gremio defence−46%
Expected goals1.19
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals89%
- Over 1.5 goals68%
- Over 2.5 goals39%
- Over 3.5 goals20%
- Over 4.5 goals8%
- Both teams score42%
- Gremio or draw62%
- Draw or Atletico-MG69%
- No draw69%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
11.4 expected
6.2 for Gremio and 5.3 for Atletico-MG
- Over 8.5 corners74%
- Over 9.5 corners65%
- Over 10.5 corners55%
Cards
4.5 expected
2.1 for Gremio and 2.3 for Atletico-MG
- Over 3.5 cards65%
- Over 4.5 cards46%
- Over 5.5 cards29%
Shots
30.5 expected
16.5 for Gremio and 14.0 for Atletico-MG
- Over 20.5 shots91%
- Over 22.5 shots85%
- Over 24.5 shots77%
Fouls
26.2 expected
12.9 for Gremio and 13.3 for Atletico-MG
- Over 20.5 fouls84%
- Over 22.5 fouls74%
- Over 24.5 fouls60%
Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.