Probably Football

Matches

Copa Do Brasil (Brazil)

Vasco DA Gama vs Palmeiras

  1. Vasco DA Gama20%
  2. Draw29%
  3. Palmeiras51%

0.87 expected goals for Vasco DA Gama

1.46 expected goals for Palmeiras

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Palmeiras has the edge (51%), but not by much: a draw is at 29% and a Vasco DA Gama win at 20%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Palmeiras defence, which lets in 65% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Palmeiras attack, which scores 89% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.3 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 39% chance, and both teams scoring, 42%. And about 9.9 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Vasco DA Gama

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Vasco DA Gama attack+66%
  3. Palmeiras defence−65%

Expected goals0.87

Palmeiras

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Palmeiras attack+89%
  2. Vasco DA Gama defence−43%

Expected goals1.46

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals90%
  2. Over 1.5 goals68%
  3. Over 2.5 goals39%
  4. Over 3.5 goals21%
  5. Over 4.5 goals9%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.9 expected

5.7 for Vasco DA Gama and 4.2 for Palmeiras

  1. Over 8.5 corners61%
  2. Over 9.5 corners51%
  3. Over 10.5 corners41%

Cards

4.1 expected

1.8 for Vasco DA Gama and 2.4 for Palmeiras

  1. Over 3.5 cards59%
  2. Over 4.5 cards39%
  3. Over 5.5 cards23%

Shots

25.7 expected

14.2 for Vasco DA Gama and 11.6 for Palmeiras

  1. Over 20.5 shots77%
  2. Over 22.5 shots66%
  3. Over 24.5 shots54%

Fouls

23.9 expected

11.8 for Vasco DA Gama and 12.1 for Palmeiras

  1. Over 20.5 fouls73%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls59%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls44%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.