Probably Football

Matches

AFC Champions League Two (International)

Melbourne Victory vs Persib Bandung

  1. Melbourne Victory34%
  2. Draw25%
  3. Persib Bandung41%

1.24 expected goals for Melbourne Victory

1.38 expected goals for Persib Bandung

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 41%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Persib Bandung defence, which lets in 20% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 50% chance, and both teams scoring, 54%. And about 9.7 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Melbourne Victory

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Melbourne Victory attack+3%
  3. Persib Bandung defence−20%

Expected goals1.24

Persib Bandung

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Persib Bandung attack+2%
  2. Melbourne Victory defence0%

Expected goals1.38

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals92%
  2. Over 1.5 goals74%
  3. Over 2.5 goals50%
  4. Over 3.5 goals27%
  5. Over 4.5 goals13%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.7 expected

4.8 for Melbourne Victory and 4.9 for Persib Bandung

  1. Over 8.5 corners59%
  2. Over 9.5 corners48%
  3. Over 10.5 corners38%

Cards

3.5 expected

1.4 for Melbourne Victory and 2.1 for Persib Bandung

  1. Over 3.5 cards46%
  2. Over 4.5 cards27%
  3. Over 5.5 cards14%

Shots

27.9 expected

11.3 for Melbourne Victory and 16.6 for Persib Bandung

  1. Over 20.5 shots84%
  2. Over 22.5 shots75%
  3. Over 24.5 shots65%

Fouls

25.5 expected

14.1 for Melbourne Victory and 11.5 for Persib Bandung

  1. Over 20.5 fouls82%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls70%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls56%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.