Probably Football

Matches

UEFA Europa Conference League (International)

Twente vs Pafos

  1. Twente70%
  2. Draw18%
  3. Pafos12%

2.32 expected goals for Twente

0.96 expected goals for Pafos

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Twente the clear favourite: 70% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Twente attack, which scores 122% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Twente defence, which lets in 46% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 3.3 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 55% chance, and both teams scoring, 51%. And about 9.3 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Twente

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Twente attack+122%
  3. Pafos defence−31%

Expected goals2.32

Pafos

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Pafos attack+31%
  2. Twente defence−46%

Expected goals0.96

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals96%
  2. Over 1.5 goals84%
  3. Over 2.5 goals55%
  4. Over 3.5 goals41%
  5. Over 4.5 goals23%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.3 expected

5.9 for Twente and 3.4 for Pafos

  1. Over 8.5 corners55%
  2. Over 9.5 corners44%
  3. Over 10.5 corners35%

Cards

4.4 expected

1.8 for Twente and 2.6 for Pafos

  1. Over 3.5 cards65%
  2. Over 4.5 cards45%
  3. Over 5.5 cards28%

Shots

29.1 expected

18.7 for Twente and 10.4 for Pafos

  1. Over 20.5 shots87%
  2. Over 22.5 shots80%
  3. Over 24.5 shots70%

Fouls

27.7 expected

13.9 for Twente and 13.8 for Pafos

  1. Over 20.5 fouls90%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls81%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls70%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.