Probably Football

Matches

UEFA Europa Conference League (International)

Trabzonspor vs SC Freiburg

  1. Trabzonspor18%
  2. Draw20%
  3. SC Freiburg62%

0.89 expected goals for Trabzonspor

2.31 expected goals for SC Freiburg

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes SC Freiburg the clear favourite: 62% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the SC Freiburg attack, which scores 124% more goals than an average team. Next comes the SC Freiburg defence, which lets in 42% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 3.2 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 54% chance, and both teams scoring, 50%. And about 10.6 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Trabzonspor

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Trabzonspor attack+2%
  3. SC Freiburg defence−42%

Expected goals0.89

SC Freiburg

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. SC Freiburg attack+124%
  2. Trabzonspor defence−24%

Expected goals2.31

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals96%
  2. Over 1.5 goals83%
  3. Over 2.5 goals54%
  4. Over 3.5 goals40%
  5. Over 4.5 goals22%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.6 expected

5.5 for Trabzonspor and 5.1 for SC Freiburg

  1. Over 8.5 corners67%
  2. Over 9.5 corners57%
  3. Over 10.5 corners48%

Cards

3.9 expected

1.6 for Trabzonspor and 2.4 for SC Freiburg

  1. Over 3.5 cards55%
  2. Over 4.5 cards36%
  3. Over 5.5 cards20%

Shots

30.3 expected

16.8 for Trabzonspor and 13.5 for SC Freiburg

  1. Over 20.5 shots90%
  2. Over 22.5 shots84%
  3. Over 24.5 shots76%

Fouls

25.2 expected

12.2 for Trabzonspor and 13.0 for SC Freiburg

  1. Over 20.5 fouls80%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls68%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls54%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.