UEFA Europa Conference League (International)
Riga vs FK Jablonec
- Riga36%
- Draw26%
- FK Jablonec38%
1.14 expected goals for Riga
1.29 expected goals for FK Jablonec
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
A very open match: no result goes above 38%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the FK Jablonec defence, which lets in 30% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Riga defence, which lets in 19% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.4 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 50% chance, and both teams scoring, 49%. And about 9.5 corners.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Riga
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Riga attack+9%
- FK Jablonec defence−30%
Expected goals1.14
FK Jablonec
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- FK Jablonec attack+17%
- Riga defence−19%
Expected goals1.29
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals91%
- Over 1.5 goals70%
- Over 2.5 goals50%
- Over 3.5 goals23%
- Over 4.5 goals10%
- Both teams score49%
- Riga or draw62%
- Draw or FK Jablonec64%
- No draw74%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
9.5 expected
5.8 for Riga and 3.7 for FK Jablonec
- Over 8.5 corners57%
- Over 9.5 corners46%
- Over 10.5 corners36%
Cards
3.9 expected
1.6 for Riga and 2.3 for FK Jablonec
- Over 3.5 cards54%
- Over 4.5 cards35%
- Over 5.5 cards20%
Shots
27.8 expected
18.4 for Riga and 9.3 for FK Jablonec
- Over 20.5 shots83%
- Over 22.5 shots74%
- Over 24.5 shots64%
Fouls
25.6 expected
13.3 for Riga and 12.3 for FK Jablonec
- Over 20.5 fouls82%
- Over 22.5 fouls70%
- Over 24.5 fouls56%
Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.