Probably Football

Matches

UEFA Europa Conference League (International)

Monaco vs FC Nordsjaelland

  1. Monaco40%
  2. Draw23%
  3. FC Nordsjaelland37%

1.45 expected goals for Monaco

1.51 expected goals for FC Nordsjaelland

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 40%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the FC Nordsjaelland defence, which lets in 53% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Monaco attack, which scores 106% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.0 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 52% chance, and both teams scoring, 52%. And about 9.7 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Monaco

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Monaco attack+106%
  3. FC Nordsjaelland defence−53%

Expected goals1.45

FC Nordsjaelland

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. FC Nordsjaelland attack+94%
  2. Monaco defence−43%

Expected goals1.51

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals94%
  2. Over 1.5 goals80%
  3. Over 2.5 goals52%
  4. Over 3.5 goals34%
  5. Over 4.5 goals18%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.7 expected

4.7 for Monaco and 5.1 for FC Nordsjaelland

  1. Over 8.5 corners59%
  2. Over 9.5 corners49%
  3. Over 10.5 corners39%

Cards

5.4 expected

2.6 for Monaco and 2.9 for FC Nordsjaelland

  1. Over 3.5 cards79%
  2. Over 4.5 cards63%
  3. Over 5.5 cards46%

Shots

26.6 expected

16.2 for Monaco and 10.4 for FC Nordsjaelland

  1. Over 20.5 shots80%
  2. Over 22.5 shots70%
  3. Over 24.5 shots59%

Fouls

26.3 expected

13.5 for Monaco and 12.9 for FC Nordsjaelland

  1. Over 20.5 fouls85%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls74%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls61%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.