Probably Football

Matches

UEFA Europa Conference League (International)

Mjallby AIF vs Borac Banja Luka

  1. Mjallby AIF43%
  2. Draw27%
  3. Borac Banja Luka30%

1.19 expected goals for Mjallby AIF

0.99 expected goals for Borac Banja Luka

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Mjallby AIF has the edge (43%), but not by much: a draw is at 27% and a Borac Banja Luka win at 30%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Mjallby AIF defence, which lets in 27% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Borac Banja Luka defence, which lets in 14% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.2 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 49% chance, and both teams scoring, 46%. And about 9.6 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Mjallby AIF

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Mjallby AIF attack−9%
  3. Borac Banja Luka defence−14%

Expected goals1.19

Borac Banja Luka

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Borac Banja Luka attack0%
  2. Mjallby AIF defence−27%

Expected goals0.99

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals88%
  2. Over 1.5 goals65%
  3. Over 2.5 goals49%
  4. Over 3.5 goals18%
  5. Over 4.5 goals7%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.6 expected

5.8 for Mjallby AIF and 3.9 for Borac Banja Luka

  1. Over 8.5 corners58%
  2. Over 9.5 corners48%
  3. Over 10.5 corners38%

Cards

4.6 expected

2.0 for Mjallby AIF and 2.6 for Borac Banja Luka

  1. Over 3.5 cards67%
  2. Over 4.5 cards48%
  3. Over 5.5 cards31%

Shots

32.5 expected

22.9 for Mjallby AIF and 9.7 for Borac Banja Luka

  1. Over 20.5 shots93%
  2. Over 22.5 shots87%
  3. Over 24.5 shots80%

Fouls

27.9 expected

14.6 for Mjallby AIF and 13.3 for Borac Banja Luka

  1. Over 20.5 fouls90%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls82%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls71%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.