UEFA Europa Conference League (International)
Getafe vs Brighton
- Getafe15%
- Draw22%
- Brighton63%
0.64 expected goals for Getafe
2.08 expected goals for Brighton
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
The model makes Brighton the clear favourite: 63% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Brighton defence, which lets in 65% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Brighton attack, which scores 159% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.7 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 51% chance, and both teams scoring, 45%. And about 10.3 corners.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Getafe
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Getafe attack+22%
- Brighton defence−65%
Expected goals0.64
Brighton
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Brighton attack+159%
- Getafe defence−41%
Expected goals2.08
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals93%
- Over 1.5 goals76%
- Over 2.5 goals51%
- Over 3.5 goals29%
- Over 4.5 goals14%
- Both teams score45%
- Getafe or draw36%
- Draw or Brighton85%
- No draw78%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
10.3 expected
5.6 for Getafe and 4.7 for Brighton
- Over 8.5 corners64%
- Over 9.5 corners54%
- Over 10.5 corners44%
Cards
4.2 expected
1.9 for Getafe and 2.4 for Brighton
- Over 3.5 cards61%
- Over 4.5 cards42%
- Over 5.5 cards25%
Shots
28.2 expected
12.2 for Getafe and 16.0 for Brighton
- Over 20.5 shots85%
- Over 22.5 shots77%
- Over 24.5 shots67%
Fouls
23.8 expected
10.6 for Getafe and 13.2 for Brighton
- Over 20.5 fouls72%
- Over 22.5 fouls58%
- Over 24.5 fouls43%
Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.