Probably Football

Matches

UEFA Europa Conference League (International)

FC Copenhagen vs FC Iberia 1999

  1. FC Copenhagen93%
  2. Draw6%
  3. FC Iberia 19991%

3.91 expected goals for FC Copenhagen

0.47 expected goals for FC Iberia 1999

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes FC Copenhagen the clear favourite: 93% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the FC Copenhagen attack, which scores 143% more goals than an average team. Next comes the FC Copenhagen defence, which lets in 58% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 4.4 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 67% chance, and both teams scoring, 41%. And about 9.1 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

FC Copenhagen

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. FC Copenhagen attack+143%
  3. FC Iberia 1999 defence+7%

Expected goals3.91

FC Iberia 1999

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. FC Iberia 1999 attack−19%
  2. FC Copenhagen defence−58%

Expected goals0.47

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals99%
  2. Over 1.5 goals93%
  3. Over 2.5 goals67%
  4. Over 3.5 goals64%
  5. Over 4.5 goals44%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.1 expected

5.0 for FC Copenhagen and 4.1 for FC Iberia 1999

  1. Over 8.5 corners53%
  2. Over 9.5 corners42%
  3. Over 10.5 corners33%

Cards

3.9 expected

1.5 for FC Copenhagen and 2.4 for FC Iberia 1999

  1. Over 3.5 cards55%
  2. Over 4.5 cards36%
  3. Over 5.5 cards21%

Shots

27.3 expected

20.4 for FC Copenhagen and 6.9 for FC Iberia 1999

  1. Over 20.5 shots80%
  2. Over 22.5 shots70%
  3. Over 24.5 shots59%

Fouls

28.6 expected

16.0 for FC Copenhagen and 12.6 for FC Iberia 1999

  1. Over 20.5 fouls92%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls85%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls75%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.