Probably Football

Matches

UEFA Europa Conference League (International)

FK Crvena Zvezda vs Inter Club d'Escaldes

  1. FK Crvena Zvezda82%
  2. Draw13%
  3. Inter Club d'Escaldes5%

3.06 expected goals for FK Crvena Zvezda

0.88 expected goals for Inter Club d'Escaldes

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes FK Crvena Zvezda the clear favourite: 82% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the FK Crvena Zvezda attack, which scores 68% more goals than an average team. Next comes the FK Crvena Zvezda defence, which lets in 35% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 3.9 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 62% chance, and both teams scoring, 51%. And about 8.6 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

FK Crvena Zvezda

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. FK Crvena Zvezda attack+68%
  3. Inter Club d'Escaldes defence+21%

Expected goals3.06

Inter Club d'Escaldes

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Inter Club d'Escaldes attack0%
  2. FK Crvena Zvezda defence−35%

Expected goals0.88

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals98%
  2. Over 1.5 goals91%
  3. Over 2.5 goals62%
  4. Over 3.5 goals55%
  5. Over 4.5 goals36%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

8.6 expected

4.6 for FK Crvena Zvezda and 4.0 for Inter Club d'Escaldes

  1. Over 8.5 corners48%
  2. Over 9.5 corners37%
  3. Over 10.5 corners28%

Cards

5.1 expected

2.5 for FK Crvena Zvezda and 2.6 for Inter Club d'Escaldes

  1. Over 3.5 cards75%
  2. Over 4.5 cards58%
  3. Over 5.5 cards40%

Shots

29.3 expected

17.5 for FK Crvena Zvezda and 11.9 for Inter Club d'Escaldes

  1. Over 20.5 shots88%
  2. Over 22.5 shots81%
  3. Over 24.5 shots72%

Fouls

23.8 expected

10.7 for FK Crvena Zvezda and 13.1 for Inter Club d'Escaldes

  1. Over 20.5 fouls72%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls58%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls43%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.