Probably Football

Matches

UEFA Europa Conference League (International)

Thursday 22 October, 14:00

Final score

Ajax2-0Atalanta

The model's most likely result happened: a Ajax win (52%).

Ajax vs Atalanta

  1. Ajax52%
  2. Draw21%
  3. Atalanta27%

2.00 expected goals for Ajax

1.47 expected goals for Atalanta

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Ajax has the edge (52%), but not by much: a draw is at 21% and a Atalanta win at 27%. It expects 3.5 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 57% chance, and both teams scoring, 51%. And about 10.4 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals96%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals87%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals57%It did not happen
  4. Over 3.5 goals46%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals27%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.4 expected

6.6 for Ajax and 3.8 for Atalanta

  1. Over 8.5 corners66%
  2. Over 9.5 corners56%
  3. Over 10.5 corners46%

Cards

3.7 expected

1.8 for Ajax and 1.9 for Atalanta

  1. Over 3.5 cards50%
  2. Over 4.5 cards31%
  3. Over 5.5 cards17%

Shots

33.9 expected

23.4 for Ajax and 10.5 for Atalanta

  1. Over 20.5 shots94%
  2. Over 22.5 shots90%
  3. Over 24.5 shots84%

Fouls

20.8 expected

9.6 for Ajax and 11.2 for Atalanta

  1. Over 20.5 fouls50%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls35%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls22%

Saved before kickoff, on 21 October at 07:01 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.