Probably Football

Matches

UEFA Europa League (International)

Rennes vs Olympiakos Piraeus

  1. Rennes47%
  2. Draw22%
  3. Olympiakos Piraeus31%

1.58 expected goals for Rennes

1.27 expected goals for Olympiakos Piraeus

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Rennes has the edge (47%), but not by much: a draw is at 22% and a Olympiakos Piraeus win at 31%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Rennes attack, which scores 127% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Olympiakos Piraeus defence, which lets in 54% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.8 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 55% chance, and both teams scoring, 52%. And about 10.1 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Rennes

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Rennes attack+127%
  3. Olympiakos Piraeus defence−54%

Expected goals1.58

Olympiakos Piraeus

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Olympiakos Piraeus attack+25%
  2. Rennes defence−26%

Expected goals1.27

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals94%
  2. Over 1.5 goals78%
  3. Over 2.5 goals55%
  4. Over 3.5 goals32%
  5. Over 4.5 goals16%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.1 expected

5.6 for Rennes and 4.5 for Olympiakos Piraeus

  1. Over 8.5 corners63%
  2. Over 9.5 corners52%
  3. Over 10.5 corners42%

Cards

4.2 expected

1.8 for Rennes and 2.4 for Olympiakos Piraeus

  1. Over 3.5 cards60%
  2. Over 4.5 cards40%
  3. Over 5.5 cards24%

Shots

25.8 expected

14.7 for Rennes and 11.0 for Olympiakos Piraeus

  1. Over 20.5 shots77%
  2. Over 22.5 shots66%
  3. Over 24.5 shots54%

Fouls

24.7 expected

12.5 for Rennes and 12.3 for Olympiakos Piraeus

  1. Over 20.5 fouls78%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls65%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls50%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.