Probably Football

Matches

UEFA Europa League (International)

Real Sociedad vs Lyon

  1. Real Sociedad44%
  2. Draw20%
  3. Lyon36%

1.82 expected goals for Real Sociedad

1.70 expected goals for Lyon

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Real Sociedad has the edge (44%), but not by much: a draw is at 20% and a Lyon win at 36%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Real Sociedad attack, which scores 138% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Lyon defence, which lets in 49% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 3.5 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 58% chance, and both teams scoring, 52%. And about 9.9 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Real Sociedad

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Real Sociedad attack+138%
  3. Lyon defence−49%

Expected goals1.82

Lyon

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Lyon attack+86%
  2. Real Sociedad defence−33%

Expected goals1.70

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals97%
  2. Over 1.5 goals87%
  3. Over 2.5 goals58%
  4. Over 3.5 goals47%
  5. Over 4.5 goals28%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.9 expected

5.7 for Real Sociedad and 4.3 for Lyon

  1. Over 8.5 corners61%
  2. Over 9.5 corners51%
  3. Over 10.5 corners41%

Cards

3.8 expected

1.7 for Real Sociedad and 2.0 for Lyon

  1. Over 3.5 cards52%
  2. Over 4.5 cards33%
  3. Over 5.5 cards18%

Shots

26.7 expected

15.7 for Real Sociedad and 11.0 for Lyon

  1. Over 20.5 shots81%
  2. Over 22.5 shots71%
  3. Over 24.5 shots60%

Fouls

22.1 expected

11.8 for Real Sociedad and 10.3 for Lyon

  1. Over 20.5 fouls61%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls45%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls30%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.