Probably Football

Matches

UEFA Europa League (International)

Thursday 22 October, 14:00

Final score

Plzen1-2Levski Sofia

The model gave this result 18%. Its most likely result was a Plzen win (58%).

Plzen vs Levski Sofia

  1. Plzen58%
  2. Draw24%
  3. Levski Sofia18%

1.41 expected goals for Plzen

0.67 expected goals for Levski Sofia

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

The model makes Plzen the clear favourite: 58% to win. It expects 2.1 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 48% chance, and both teams scoring, 48%. And about 8.9 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals87%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals62%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals48%It happened
  4. Over 3.5 goals16%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals6%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

8.9 expected

5.2 for Plzen and 3.7 for Levski Sofia

  1. Over 8.5 corners50%
  2. Over 9.5 corners40%
  3. Over 10.5 corners30%

Cards

4.7 expected

2.3 for Plzen and 2.3 for Levski Sofia

  1. Over 3.5 cards68%
  2. Over 4.5 cards50%
  3. Over 5.5 cards32%

Shots

29.1 expected

15.5 for Plzen and 13.6 for Levski Sofia

  1. Over 20.5 shots88%
  2. Over 22.5 shots80%
  3. Over 24.5 shots71%

Fouls

24.8 expected

13.9 for Plzen and 10.9 for Levski Sofia

  1. Over 20.5 fouls78%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls65%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls50%

Saved before kickoff, on 21 October at 07:01 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.