Probably Football

Matches

UEFA Europa League (International)

Lillestrom vs Plzen

  1. Lillestrom35%
  2. Draw23%
  3. Plzen42%

1.16 expected goals for Lillestrom

1.42 expected goals for Plzen

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 42%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Plzen defence, which lets in 43% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Plzen attack, which scores 45% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 53% chance, and both teams scoring, 52%. And about 9.0 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Lillestrom

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Lillestrom attack+34%
  3. Plzen defence−43%

Expected goals1.16

Plzen

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Plzen attack+45%
  2. Lillestrom defence−28%

Expected goals1.42

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals92%
  2. Over 1.5 goals73%
  3. Over 2.5 goals53%
  4. Over 3.5 goals26%
  5. Over 4.5 goals12%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.0 expected

4.7 for Lillestrom and 4.3 for Plzen

  1. Over 8.5 corners51%
  2. Over 9.5 corners41%
  3. Over 10.5 corners31%

Cards

4.2 expected

1.9 for Lillestrom and 2.3 for Plzen

  1. Over 3.5 cards61%
  2. Over 4.5 cards42%
  3. Over 5.5 cards25%

Shots

30.1 expected

15.6 for Lillestrom and 14.4 for Plzen

  1. Over 20.5 shots90%
  2. Over 22.5 shots84%
  3. Over 24.5 shots75%

Fouls

22.6 expected

10.5 for Lillestrom and 12.1 for Plzen

  1. Over 20.5 fouls65%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls49%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls35%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.