Probably Football

Matches

UEFA Europa League (International)

Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia

  1. Levski Sofia35%
  2. Draw25%
  3. Jagiellonia40%

0.95 expected goals for Levski Sofia

1.14 expected goals for Jagiellonia

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 40%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Levski Sofia defence, which lets in 37% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Jagiellonia defence, which lets in 33% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.1 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 48% chance, and both teams scoring, 49%. And about 9.3 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Levski Sofia

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Levski Sofia attack−6%
  3. Jagiellonia defence−33%

Expected goals0.95

Jagiellonia

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Jagiellonia attack+34%
  2. Levski Sofia defence−37%

Expected goals1.14

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals87%
  2. Over 1.5 goals63%
  3. Over 2.5 goals48%
  4. Over 3.5 goals16%
  5. Over 4.5 goals6%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.3 expected

5.3 for Levski Sofia and 4.0 for Jagiellonia

  1. Over 8.5 corners55%
  2. Over 9.5 corners44%
  3. Over 10.5 corners35%

Cards

4.2 expected

1.9 for Levski Sofia and 2.4 for Jagiellonia

  1. Over 3.5 cards61%
  2. Over 4.5 cards41%
  3. Over 5.5 cards25%

Shots

27.5 expected

16.4 for Levski Sofia and 11.2 for Jagiellonia

  1. Over 20.5 shots83%
  2. Over 22.5 shots74%
  3. Over 24.5 shots64%

Fouls

27.2 expected

11.5 for Levski Sofia and 15.8 for Jagiellonia

  1. Over 20.5 fouls88%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls79%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls67%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.