Probably Football

Matches

UEFA Europa League (International)

Thursday 22 October, 11:45

Final score

Lech Poznan1-1Sunderland

The model gave this result 22%. Its most likely result was a Lech Poznan win (41%).

Lech Poznan vs Sunderland

  1. Lech Poznan41%
  2. Draw22%
  3. Sunderland37%

1.39 expected goals for Lech Poznan

1.41 expected goals for Sunderland

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

A very open match: no result goes above 41%. It expects 2.8 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 54% chance, and both teams scoring, 52%. And about 10.2 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals93%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals77%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals54%It did not happen
  4. Over 3.5 goals31%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals15%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.2 expected

5.3 for Lech Poznan and 4.9 for Sunderland

  1. Over 8.5 corners63%
  2. Over 9.5 corners53%
  3. Over 10.5 corners43%

Cards

4.1 expected

1.8 for Lech Poznan and 2.3 for Sunderland

  1. Over 3.5 cards59%
  2. Over 4.5 cards39%
  3. Over 5.5 cards23%

Shots

27.9 expected

15.4 for Lech Poznan and 12.5 for Sunderland

  1. Over 20.5 shots85%
  2. Over 22.5 shots76%
  3. Over 24.5 shots66%

Fouls

25.4 expected

11.2 for Lech Poznan and 14.2 for Sunderland

  1. Over 20.5 fouls81%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls69%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls55%

Saved before kickoff, on 21 October at 07:01 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.