1899 Hoffenheim vs Lyon

1899 Hoffenheim28%
Draw19%
Lyon53%

1.36 expected goals for 1899 Hoffenheim

2.33 expected goals for Lyon

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Lyon has the edge (53%), but not by much: a draw is at 19% and a 1899 Hoffenheim win at 28%. It expects 3.7 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 59% chance, and both teams scoring, 52%. And about 10.1 corners.

Goals

Over 0.5 goals97%It happened
Over 1.5 goals89%It happened
Over 2.5 goals59%It happened
Over 3.5 goals50%It did not happen
Over 4.5 goals31%It did not happen

Both teams score52%
1899 Hoffenheim or draw47%
Draw or Lyon73%
No draw81%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.1 expected

5.9 for 1899 Hoffenheim and 4.2 for Lyon

Over 8.5 corners63%
Over 9.5 corners52%
Over 10.5 corners42%

Cards

3.8 expected

2.1 for 1899 Hoffenheim and 1.7 for Lyon

Over 3.5 cards53%
Over 4.5 cards33%
Over 5.5 cards18%

Shots

27.5 expected

15.3 for 1899 Hoffenheim and 12.1 for Lyon

Over 20.5 shots83%
Over 22.5 shots74%
Over 24.5 shots64%

Fouls

25.1 expected

14.5 for 1899 Hoffenheim and 10.6 for Lyon

Over 20.5 fouls80%
Over 22.5 fouls67%
Over 24.5 fouls53%

Saved before kickoff, on 21 October at 07:01 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.