Probably Football

Matches

UEFA Europa League (International)

Thursday 22 October, 11:45

Final score

Dinamo Zagreb2-4NEC Nijmegen

The model gave this result 14%. Its most likely result was a Dinamo Zagreb win (68%).

Dinamo Zagreb vs NEC Nijmegen

  1. Dinamo Zagreb68%
  2. Draw18%
  3. NEC Nijmegen14%

2.54 expected goals for Dinamo Zagreb

1.15 expected goals for NEC Nijmegen

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

The model makes Dinamo Zagreb the clear favourite: 68% to win. It expects 3.7 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 59% chance, and both teams scoring, 52%. And about 8.9 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals97%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals89%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals59%It happened
  4. Over 3.5 goals50%It happened
  5. Over 4.5 goals31%It happened

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

8.9 expected

5.0 for Dinamo Zagreb and 3.9 for NEC Nijmegen

  1. Over 8.5 corners50%
  2. Over 9.5 corners40%
  3. Over 10.5 corners30%

Cards

4.3 expected

1.9 for Dinamo Zagreb and 2.5 for NEC Nijmegen

  1. Over 3.5 cards63%
  2. Over 4.5 cards44%
  3. Over 5.5 cards27%

Shots

26.2 expected

15.7 for Dinamo Zagreb and 10.6 for NEC Nijmegen

  1. Over 20.5 shots79%
  2. Over 22.5 shots68%
  3. Over 24.5 shots57%

Fouls

26.5 expected

12.8 for Dinamo Zagreb and 13.7 for NEC Nijmegen

  1. Over 20.5 fouls86%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls75%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls62%

Saved before kickoff, on 21 October at 07:01 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.