Probably Football

Matches

UEFA Europa League (International)

Celta Vigo vs Union St. Gilloise

  1. Celta Vigo29%
  2. Draw23%
  3. Union St. Gilloise48%

0.88 expected goals for Celta Vigo

1.47 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Union St. Gilloise has the edge (48%), but not by much: a draw is at 23% and a Celta Vigo win at 29%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Union St. Gilloise defence, which lets in 57% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Union St. Gilloise attack, which scores 118% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.3 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 51% chance, and both teams scoring, 50%. And about 9.0 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Celta Vigo

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Celta Vigo attack+37%
  3. Union St. Gilloise defence−57%

Expected goals0.88

Union St. Gilloise

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Union St. Gilloise attack+118%
  2. Celta Vigo defence−50%

Expected goals1.47

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals90%
  2. Over 1.5 goals69%
  3. Over 2.5 goals51%
  4. Over 3.5 goals21%
  5. Over 4.5 goals9%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.0 expected

4.2 for Celta Vigo and 4.8 for Union St. Gilloise

  1. Over 8.5 corners51%
  2. Over 9.5 corners41%
  3. Over 10.5 corners31%

Cards

4.0 expected

1.8 for Celta Vigo and 2.2 for Union St. Gilloise

  1. Over 3.5 cards56%
  2. Over 4.5 cards37%
  3. Over 5.5 cards21%

Shots

27.4 expected

10.4 for Celta Vigo and 17.0 for Union St. Gilloise

  1. Over 20.5 shots82%
  2. Over 22.5 shots73%
  3. Over 24.5 shots62%

Fouls

25.6 expected

12.9 for Celta Vigo and 12.7 for Union St. Gilloise

  1. Over 20.5 fouls82%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls70%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls56%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.