Probably Football

Matches

UEFA Europa League (International)

Thursday 22 October, 14:00

Final score

Celje2-2Red Bull Salzburg

The model gave this result 20%. Its most likely result was a Red Bull Salzburg win (46%).

Celje vs Red Bull Salzburg

  1. Celje34%
  2. Draw20%
  3. Red Bull Salzburg46%

1.43 expected goals for Celje

1.88 expected goals for Red Bull Salzburg

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Red Bull Salzburg has the edge (46%), but not by much: a draw is at 20% and a Celje win at 34%. It expects 3.3 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 57% chance, and both teams scoring, 52%. And about 10.1 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals96%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals85%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals57%It happened
  4. Over 3.5 goals42%It happened
  5. Over 4.5 goals24%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.1 expected

4.6 for Celje and 5.5 for Red Bull Salzburg

  1. Over 8.5 corners63%
  2. Over 9.5 corners52%
  3. Over 10.5 corners42%

Cards

4.2 expected

2.2 for Celje and 1.9 for Red Bull Salzburg

  1. Over 3.5 cards60%
  2. Over 4.5 cards41%
  3. Over 5.5 cards24%

Shots

25.9 expected

12.4 for Celje and 13.5 for Red Bull Salzburg

  1. Over 20.5 shots77%
  2. Over 22.5 shots67%
  3. Over 24.5 shots55%

Fouls

24.5 expected

12.3 for Celje and 12.2 for Red Bull Salzburg

  1. Over 20.5 fouls76%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls63%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls48%

Saved before kickoff, on 21 October at 07:01 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.