Bournemouth vs AC Milan

Bournemouth52%
Draw22%
AC Milan26%

1.65 expected goals for Bournemouth

1.14 expected goals for AC Milan

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Bournemouth has the edge (52%), but not by much: a draw is at 22% and a AC Milan win at 26%. It expects 2.8 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 54% chance, and both teams scoring, 52%. And about 8.8 corners.

Goals

Over 0.5 goals93%It happened
Over 1.5 goals77%It happened
Over 2.5 goals54%It happened
Over 3.5 goals31%It did not happen
Over 4.5 goals15%It did not happen

Both teams score52%
Bournemouth or draw73%
Draw or AC Milan48%
No draw78%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

8.8 expected

4.7 for Bournemouth and 4.1 for AC Milan

Over 8.5 corners49%
Over 9.5 corners38%
Over 10.5 corners29%

Cards

4.4 expected

2.3 for Bournemouth and 2.1 for AC Milan

Over 3.5 cards64%
Over 4.5 cards45%
Over 5.5 cards28%

Shots

24.0 expected

12.9 for Bournemouth and 11.1 for AC Milan

Over 20.5 shots69%
Over 22.5 shots57%
Over 24.5 shots44%

Fouls

24.8 expected

12.6 for Bournemouth and 12.3 for AC Milan

Over 20.5 fouls78%
Over 22.5 fouls65%
Over 24.5 fouls51%

Saved before kickoff, on 21 October at 07:01 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.