Probably Football

Matches

UEFA Europa League (International)

Anderlecht vs Red Bull Salzburg

  1. Anderlecht51%
  2. Draw21%
  3. Red Bull Salzburg28%

1.75 expected goals for Anderlecht

1.25 expected goals for Red Bull Salzburg

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Anderlecht has the edge (51%), but not by much: a draw is at 21% and a Red Bull Salzburg win at 28%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Anderlecht defence, which lets in 36% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Anderlecht attack, which scores 51% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.0 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 56% chance, and both teams scoring, 52%. And about 8.9 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Anderlecht

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Anderlecht attack+51%
  3. Red Bull Salzburg defence−23%

Expected goals1.75

Red Bull Salzburg

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Red Bull Salzburg attack+43%
  2. Anderlecht defence−36%

Expected goals1.25

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals94%
  2. Over 1.5 goals81%
  3. Over 2.5 goals56%
  4. Over 3.5 goals35%
  5. Over 4.5 goals18%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

8.9 expected

4.7 for Anderlecht and 4.1 for Red Bull Salzburg

  1. Over 8.5 corners50%
  2. Over 9.5 corners39%
  3. Over 10.5 corners30%

Cards

4.0 expected

1.9 for Anderlecht and 2.2 for Red Bull Salzburg

  1. Over 3.5 cards57%
  2. Over 4.5 cards38%
  3. Over 5.5 cards22%

Shots

25.6 expected

15.3 for Anderlecht and 10.3 for Red Bull Salzburg

  1. Over 20.5 shots76%
  2. Over 22.5 shots65%
  3. Over 24.5 shots54%

Fouls

23.9 expected

12.0 for Anderlecht and 11.9 for Red Bull Salzburg

  1. Over 20.5 fouls73%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls59%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls44%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.