Probably Football

Matches

UEFA Champions League (International)

Villarreal vs Paris Saint Germain

  1. Villarreal19%
  2. Draw16%
  3. Paris Saint Germain65%

1.19 expected goals for Villarreal

2.67 expected goals for Paris Saint Germain

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Paris Saint Germain the clear favourite: 65% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Paris Saint Germain attack, which scores 235% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Paris Saint Germain defence, which lets in 63% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 3.9 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 66% chance, and both teams scoring, 56%. And about 10.1 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Villarreal

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Villarreal attack+114%
  3. Paris Saint Germain defence−63%

Expected goals1.19

Paris Saint Germain

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Paris Saint Germain attack+235%
  2. Villarreal defence−41%

Expected goals2.68

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals98%
  2. Over 1.5 goals90%
  3. Over 2.5 goals66%
  4. Over 3.5 goals54%
  5. Over 4.5 goals34%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.1 expected

5.7 for Villarreal and 4.4 for Paris Saint Germain

  1. Over 8.5 corners63%
  2. Over 9.5 corners52%
  3. Over 10.5 corners42%

Cards

3.9 expected

1.8 for Villarreal and 2.1 for Paris Saint Germain

  1. Over 3.5 cards54%
  2. Over 4.5 cards35%
  3. Over 5.5 cards20%

Shots

30.5 expected

16.1 for Villarreal and 14.3 for Paris Saint Germain

  1. Over 20.5 shots91%
  2. Over 22.5 shots85%
  3. Over 24.5 shots77%

Fouls

22.3 expected

11.6 for Villarreal and 10.8 for Paris Saint Germain

  1. Over 20.5 fouls62%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls47%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls32%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.