Probably Football

Matches

UEFA Champions League (International)

RB Leipzig vs Manchester City

  1. RB Leipzig26%
  2. Draw18%
  3. Manchester City56%

1.40 expected goals for RB Leipzig

2.38 expected goals for Manchester City

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Manchester City the clear favourite: 56% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Manchester City attack, which scores 210% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Manchester City defence, which lets in 62% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 3.8 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 65% chance, and both teams scoring, 57%. And about 10.5 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

RB Leipzig

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. RB Leipzig attack+143%
  3. Manchester City defence−62%

Expected goals1.40

Manchester City

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Manchester City attack+210%
  2. RB Leipzig defence−44%

Expected goals2.38

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals97%
  2. Over 1.5 goals89%
  3. Over 2.5 goals65%
  4. Over 3.5 goals52%
  5. Over 4.5 goals33%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.5 expected

4.9 for RB Leipzig and 5.5 for Manchester City

  1. Over 8.5 corners66%
  2. Over 9.5 corners56%
  3. Over 10.5 corners46%

Cards

3.7 expected

1.5 for RB Leipzig and 2.2 for Manchester City

  1. Over 3.5 cards51%
  2. Over 4.5 cards31%
  3. Over 5.5 cards17%

Shots

27.4 expected

13.5 for RB Leipzig and 13.9 for Manchester City

  1. Over 20.5 shots83%
  2. Over 22.5 shots74%
  3. Over 24.5 shots63%

Fouls

24.2 expected

12.5 for RB Leipzig and 11.7 for Manchester City

  1. Over 20.5 fouls75%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls61%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls46%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.