Probably Football

Matches

UEFA Champions League (International)

PSV Eindhoven vs Club Brugge KV

  1. PSV Eindhoven45%
  2. Draw18%
  3. Club Brugge KV37%

2.20 expected goals for PSV Eindhoven

2.08 expected goals for Club Brugge KV

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

PSV Eindhoven has the edge (45%), but not by much: a draw is at 18% and a Club Brugge KV win at 37%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Club Brugge KV attack, which scores 175% more goals than an average team. Next comes the PSV Eindhoven attack, which scores 150% more goals than an average team. It expects 4.3 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 70% chance, and both teams scoring, 60%. And about 9.4 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

PSV Eindhoven

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. PSV Eindhoven attack+150%
  3. Club Brugge KV defence−42%

Expected goals2.20

Club Brugge KV

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Club Brugge KV attack+175%
  2. PSV Eindhoven defence−44%

Expected goals2.08

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals98%
  2. Over 1.5 goals93%
  3. Over 2.5 goals70%
  4. Over 3.5 goals62%
  5. Over 4.5 goals43%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.4 expected

5.3 for PSV Eindhoven and 4.1 for Club Brugge KV

  1. Over 8.5 corners56%
  2. Over 9.5 corners46%
  3. Over 10.5 corners36%

Cards

4.1 expected

1.9 for PSV Eindhoven and 2.2 for Club Brugge KV

  1. Over 3.5 cards58%
  2. Over 4.5 cards39%
  3. Over 5.5 cards23%

Shots

31.4 expected

17.4 for PSV Eindhoven and 13.9 for Club Brugge KV

  1. Over 20.5 shots92%
  2. Over 22.5 shots87%
  3. Over 24.5 shots80%

Fouls

21.5 expected

11.2 for PSV Eindhoven and 10.3 for Club Brugge KV

  1. Over 20.5 fouls56%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls40%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls26%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.